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The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could lead to further inflation, but economic models suggest it will be a one-off increase in the price level rather than a long-term inflationary spiral. That could convince the Fed to be more patient in dealing with tariff-induced inflation, especially as the labor market continues to slow, said Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo. His view supports Wells Fargo's benchmark forecast that the Fed will cut interest rates three more times t...
Traders are betting on stronger Treasury yields and the dollar, betting that Trump 2.0 will lead to inflation. But the trade has lost momentum in recent weeks as Democratic nominee Harris has turned the race upside down and erased Trump's advantage in the polls. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen nearly 2% so far in August as traders prepare for the Fed pivot, its biggest drop since markets prematurely prepared for the Fed pivot late last year. Still, this...
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